A bayesian approach for the assessment of risk probability. case study for digital risk probability

Abstract

Our society is facing new challenges and risks, due to the interdependency of the elements comprising its critical infrastructure (such as energy, transports, and digital). This paper proposes a framework for the assessment of risk probability, presented for the case of the natural or man-made disasters that could affect the most important information systems in Bacau County. Considering overlapping chains of events that could potentially occur as consequences of a disaster, the model allows its user to vary certain parameters and observe the effects on the global, computed risk probability. The analysis behind integrates the design of a semantic graph that includes most of the hazardous events which have been recorded during the last years in the targeted area, and the Bayesian approach of uncertainty. A particular emphasis is placed on aspects concerning the risks associated to information systems. The model could be used to support the best decisions in a given situation, facilitating the focus on the most significant risks and especially on the protection of digital infrastructure.