Air pollution history and projection in ahvaz: insights from one of the most polluted cities in the world

Neda Kaydi1,2, Elham Maraghi3, Bamshad Shenavar4, Zeinab Bahrami5, Alireza Azarian4, Soghra Rostami4, Mohamad Javad Ashrafi4, Sirous Karimi4, Nematollah Jaafarzadeh Haghighifard1, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie1

1 Environmental Technologies Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences. Ahvaz, Iran
2 Student Research Committee, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
3 Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
4 Environment Protection Organization, Khuzestan Province, Ahvaz, Iran
5 Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Environmental Engineering Kyoto University, Japan

Abstract


Ahvaz, recognized as one of the most polluted cities globally, has drawn significant attention from scientists and policymakers due to its severe air quality issues. This study investigates the historical trends and characteristics of air pollution in Ahvaz, analyzing air quality data from 2013 to April 2021 and providing projections for 2021 and 2023 to enhance understanding of atmospheric environmental challenges. Data from the Ahvaz Air Quality Monitoring Network were analyzed using autoregressive time series models to forecast pollution levels for the following 24 months. The findings reveal that, throughout the study period, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations consistently exceeded the World Health Organization's air quality guidelines. The peak pollution year was 2015, particularly in traffic-congested areas, marked by elevated levels of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants. Trend analysis identified declining patterns for PM10 (-5.65%), PM2.5 (-4.06%), and SO2 (-2.06%), alongside increasing trends for NO2 (+21.79%), O3 (+37.67%), and CO (+21.04%). Projections indicate a continued decrease in SO2, PM10, PM2.5, and CO concentrations but a rise in O3 and NO2 levels. This study underscores the urgent need for immediate interventions to address Ahvaz's air pollution crisis. It offers critical insights into atmospheric environmental issues in Southwest Asia, highlighting the necessity of reducing emissions from heavy industries and transportation while implementing strategies to safeguard residents during dust storms. These measures are essential for achieving a sustainable future for Ahvaz and mitigating its significant environmental challenges.

Keywords


air pollution; ambient air quality; Ahvaz; forecast

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